As Thailand’s real estate sector shows signs of sustained recovery in early 2025, prominent developer groups are now sounding the alarm on emerging risks that could derail this fragile momentum. This April, both the Thai Condominium Association and the Thai Real Estate Association have publicly urged the government to introduce additional stimulus measures to counteract global and regional pressures that threaten buyer sentiment and transaction volumes in the coming quarters.

External Risks Affecting Buyer Confidence

Two major factors have developers on edge:

1. US Trade Tensions and Economic Slowdown

The ongoing trade standoff between the United States and several Asian economies has raised serious concerns over global financial stability. Currency fluctuations, export uncertainty, and a dip in business confidence are already impacting cross-border investment decisions.

Thai developers fear this could:

  • Weaken foreign buyer confidence, especially in the luxury and investment segments

  • Delay pre-sale commitments for new projects, particularly condominiums in Bangkok, Pattaya, and Chiang Mai

  • Trigger tighter financing conditions for both developers and end-users

2. 8.2-Magnitude Earthquake in Myanmar

In early April, a powerful earthquake in Myanmar sent tremors across much of Southeast Asia, including parts of Northern and Central Thailand. While physical damage within Thailand was minimal, the psychological impact on high-rise buyers in Bangkok has been more pronounced.

According to a report by Mothership.sg, real estate agents have noticed:

  • A slowdown in viewings and bookings for high-rise condominiums in Q2 2025

  • Heightened buyer concern about structural safety

  • Renewed interest in low-rise properties and horizontal developments

These sentiments are not limited to the capital. Developers in Chiang Mai and Khon Kaen have also reported buyer inquiries shifting toward villas and townhomes, citing earthquake fears.

Industry Leaders Demand Action

In response, real estate industry leaders are proposing a coordinated set of policy interventions aimed at maintaining market stability. Key proposals include:

  • Extended reductions in transfer and mortgage registration fees beyond the current 0.01% for properties under THB 7 million

  • Tax incentives for both domestic and foreign property purchases

  • Increased housing loan support for first-time buyers and middle-income families

  • Promotion of low-rise, earthquake-resilient developments through subsidies or streamlined permitting

These measures are seen as critical to maintaining momentum in the post-pandemic housing recovery and safeguarding a sector that contributes over 8% of Thailand’s GDP.

The Case for Preemptive Policy

Real estate analysts warn that waiting until sales numbers decline would be a strategic mistake. Thailand’s property sector—while currently stable—is still sensitive to macroeconomic shocks.

“We’re in a balancing act,” says a source from the Thai Real Estate Association. “The market is warming up, but it wouldn’t take much—one bad quarter of global news—to chill activity again.”

Advanced policy planning is also crucial as Thailand aims to attract more foreign investors through its Long-Term Resident (LTR) Visa program and digital nomad incentives. These demographics are sensitive to both geopolitical risk and financial volatility.

Broader Implications

If stimulus isn’t introduced soon, developers warn of:

  • Project delays and unsold inventory build-up, especially in Bangkok

  • Lower job creation in construction and real estate support sectors

  • Reduced tax revenue from housing-related activities

With over 53,000 units expected to launch nationwide in 2025, many developers are watching government signals closely before committing to new phases.

Final Thoughts: Time for Proactive Support

As Thailand positions itself as Southeast Asia’s most livable destination for global investors, digital nomads, and retirees, confidence in the property market is essential.